Best Covered Call Screeners That Show Probability of Profit and Probability of Expiring Worthless

The Short Answer: Which Screeners Show These Numbers?

Several covered call screeners display probability of profit (PoP) or probability of expiring worthless (PEW) directly in their results columns. The most widely used tools among retail traders are Barchart.com's Options Screener, Thinkorswim (TD Ameritrade/Schwab), Tastytrade's platform, and PowerOptions. Each calculates these figures from the option's delta and implied volatility — so the math is consistent, but the display and filtering controls differ significantly.

If you only have time to try one free tool, Barchart's screener lets you sort by 'Probability of Profit' without creating an account. If you want deeper filtering and are already at a broker, Thinkorswim and Tastytrade both embed PoP columns natively inside their options chains.

What Probability of Profit and Probability of Expiring Worthless Actually Mean

These two numbers sound interchangeable but they measure slightly different things.

Probability of Expiring Worthless (PEW) is the estimated chance that the call option expires with no intrinsic value — meaning the stock stays below your strike price at expiration. For a covered call seller, that is the ideal outcome: you keep the full premium and your shares. PEW is mathematically close to 1 minus the option's delta. A call with a 0.25 delta has roughly a 75% PEW.

Probability of Profit (PoP) is slightly more generous. It adds the premium you collected to your break-even calculation. Because you already received cash upfront, the stock can actually close a little above your strike and you still profit — you just get called away at the strike price. PoP is therefore always a few percentage points higher than PEW for covered call sellers.

The Options Industry Council (OIC) explains that both figures are model-derived estimates based on a lognormal distribution of future prices. They are not guarantees. Implied volatility inputs change daily, so a 72% PoP today can shift to 65% by tomorrow if the stock moves or IV spikes.

How Each Major Screener Displays These Metrics

Here is a plain comparison of the tools most retail covered-call traders actually use.

**Barchart.com Options Screener (Free)** Barchart shows a 'Probability of Profit' column in its covered call screener results. You can filter by expiration date range, moneyness (OTM percentage), minimum premium, and minimum PoP threshold. The data refreshes during market hours. No account required for basic screening. The limitation is that you cannot backtest or see historical PoP accuracy.

**Thinkorswim by Charles Schwab (Free with account)** Thinkorswim displays both delta and a 'Prob. OTM' column directly in the options chain. Prob. OTM is functionally identical to PEW. You can add a 'Prob. of Profit' column manually through the column customization menu. The platform also shows theoretical price and IV rank, which helps you judge whether the premium is rich or thin relative to history. CBOE notes that IV rank is a useful context metric alongside raw PoP figures.

**Tastytrade Platform (Free with account)** Tastytrade was built around probability-based trading. Every options chain shows PoP and Prob. OTM by default. The platform also displays 'Expected Move' — the one-standard-deviation price range for the expiration period — which gives you a visual bracket around your strike. Tastytrade's screener lets you filter the entire market by PoP range, days to expiration, and liquidity metrics like bid-ask spread.

**PowerOptions (Paid subscription)** PowerOptions is one of the few dedicated covered-call screeners that has existed since the early 2000s. It shows both PoP and PEW, plus annualized return calculations. The paid tier adds alerts and portfolio tracking. It is more expensive than using a free broker platform, but traders who own stocks at multiple brokers sometimes prefer a single consolidated screener.

**OptionStrat and Market Chameleon (Free/Freemium)** Both tools show probability metrics for individual tickers once you enter a specific strike and expiration. They are better for analyzing a trade you already have in mind than for scanning the whole market.

Worked Example: Screening AAPL for a 70%+ Probability of Profit

Let's walk through a real-numbers example using Apple (AAPL).

Assume AAPL is trading at $213.50. You own 100 shares and want to sell a covered call expiring in 30 days. You want a PoP of at least 70% so you have a reasonable cushion.

In Barchart's screener, you set: Underlying = AAPL, Expiration = approximately 30 days out, Option Type = Call, Moneyness = OTM. The results show several strikes. Here is what two of them might look like:

— AAPL $220 Call (30 DTE): Bid $2.10, Delta 0.28, PEW ~72%, PoP ~75%. You collect $210 per contract. If AAPL stays below $220 at expiration, you keep the full $210. Your break-even on the downside is $213.50 minus $2.10 = $211.40.

— AAPL $225 Call (30 DTE): Bid $1.05, Delta 0.18, PEW ~82%, PoP ~84%. You collect $105 per contract. Higher probability, but roughly half the income.

The $220 strike gives you more premium and still a 75% PoP. The $225 strike is safer statistically but pays less. Neither choice is wrong — the right one depends on your income target and how comfortable you are with the stock being called away at $220.

Note: These figures are illustrative. Always pull live quotes before placing any trade. Bid prices and probabilities change continuously.

Risks You Need to Understand Before Trusting Any Probability Number

Probability figures are model outputs, not crystal balls. Here are the real risks covered-call sellers face even when PoP looks favorable.

**The stock can drop sharply.** A 75% PoP means the call expires worthless 75% of the time under normal conditions. It says nothing about a 15% gap-down in your stock. The premium you collected — say $210 on AAPL — does not protect you much if the stock falls $20. FINRA reminds investors that options strategies do not eliminate downside risk on the underlying shares.

**Implied volatility can be misleading.** PoP is calculated from current IV. If IV is unusually low (compressed), the market is pricing in a narrow expected move, so your 75% PoP might be overstated relative to actual historical volatility. Checking IV rank or IV percentile alongside PoP helps you spot this.

**Early assignment is possible on American-style options.** If your call goes deep in-the-money before expiration, the buyer can exercise early, especially around ex-dividend dates. The OIC's educational materials cover early assignment risk in detail and are worth reading before you sell calls on high-dividend stocks.

**Tax treatment matters.** In the US, the IRS treats covered call premiums as short-term capital gains in most cases. If your call is deep in-the-money, it can affect the holding period of your underlying shares and potentially eliminate long-term capital gains treatment. In Canada, the CRA has specific rules about whether covered call premiums are income or capital — consult a tax professional if you are unsure which applies to you.

**Probability does not compound cleanly.** A 75% PoP trade run 10 times in a row does not guarantee 7.5 wins. You can lose several in a row. Size positions so that a string of losses does not force you to sell shares you wanted to hold.

How to Pick the Right Screener for Your Workflow

The best screener is the one you will actually use consistently. Here is a simple decision guide.

If you are a beginner or want a free starting point: Use Barchart's covered call screener. It shows PoP, requires no account, and has enough filters to narrow down liquid candidates quickly.

If you trade through Schwab or TD Ameritrade: Thinkorswim is already available to you at no extra cost. The Prob. OTM column in the options chain is accurate and updates in real time. Spend 20 minutes customizing your column layout once, and you will have a clean workflow.

If probability-based trading is central to your strategy: Tastytrade's platform was designed around these numbers. The default display is the most intuitive for traders who think in PoP terms.

If you hold stocks at multiple brokers and want one consolidated view: PowerOptions is worth the subscription cost if you are managing a large covered-call portfolio across accounts.

One practical tip: cross-check the PoP figure from your screener against the option's delta in your broker's chain. If the screener says 74% PoP and the delta is 0.28 (implying ~72% PEW), those numbers are consistent. If they diverge by more than 5-6 percentage points, check whether the screener is using a different model or stale data.

Is probability of profit the same as probability of expiring worthless?

No, they are related but not identical. Probability of expiring worthless is the chance the option finishes below the strike price at expiration. Probability of profit is slightly higher because it accounts for the premium you already collected, which gives you a small buffer above the strike before you lose money. For a covered call seller, PoP is typically 2-5 percentage points higher than PEW.

Which free covered call screener shows probability of profit without requiring an account?

Barchart.com's options screener shows a Probability of Profit column and does not require you to log in for basic screening. You can filter by expiration range, minimum premium, and OTM percentage. Data refreshes during market hours, though a free account unlocks slightly more filter options.

How is probability of expiring worthless calculated?

Most platforms derive it from the option's delta: PEW is approximately equal to 1 minus the call's delta. A call with a 0.25 delta has roughly a 75% probability of expiring worthless. The calculation assumes a lognormal distribution of future prices and uses current implied volatility as the key input, as explained in Options Industry Council (OIC) educational materials.

What probability of profit should I target when selling covered calls?

Most retail covered-call sellers target a PoP between 65% and 80%, which typically corresponds to strikes that are 3-8% out of the money on a 30-day expiration. Higher PoP means lower premium income, so there is a direct trade-off. Your target should reflect how much premium you need to meet your income goal versus how comfortable you are with the stock being called away.

Can I trust the probability numbers shown in a covered call screener?

They are useful estimates, not guarantees. The figures are model-derived from current implied volatility and assume a normal distribution of returns, which underestimates the chance of large sudden moves. FINRA notes that options strategies do not eliminate downside risk on the underlying shares. Use PoP as one input alongside IV rank, bid-ask spread, and your own view on the stock.

Does selling a covered call with high probability of profit affect my tax treatment?

It can. In the US, the IRS may treat premiums received from deep-in-the-money covered calls as short-term capital gains and can also reset the holding period on your underlying shares, potentially eliminating long-term capital gains treatment. In Canada, the CRA distinguishes between premium income treated as capital gains versus business income depending on trading frequency and intent. Consult a qualified tax professional before implementing a covered-call strategy in a taxable account.